The onslaught of Terra Luna has taught us one thing. No crypto project is too big to fail. It has taught us algorithmic stable coins which are oxymoronic in themselves are out of favor. As well it’s taught us greed in fact is not good”.
So i will underline some reasons why the hive blockchain may fail.
Assholes at the helm.
Although that may not seem problematic but it can be a big determining factor in the general acceptance and support of a project. The reason hive may fail is the deliberate exaggeration of the influence system.
As to say most communities don’t like assholes.. Do Kwon was a known asshole. Project head asshole = project fail. Assholes encourage people to leave not stay. The unfortunate case of hive is that it is often assholes who wield the most power to the detriment of hive. This may hinder growth and acceptance as well as not create a faith based system in the currency or project itself. The psychological factors in relation to this shouldn’t be ignored as at the end of the day your community and what type of community you have can be the determing factor to the success of the project.
Outside market conditions corelational to the value of cryptocurrencies.
The misconception of the standard economy and stock market has no impact on crypto is a false narrative. We’ve been lead to believe that crypto is a better performing asset class than the stock market. The reality is the stock market and cryptocurrency is joined at the hip and follow a similar pattern in their decline.
The predictions are our standard economies will perform poorly as well as the stockmarket over the next several years. So it’s already playing out with job losses, poor market performance, inflation and no doubt due to debacles like the terra luna situation more regulation to crypto.
This may even go so far as to suggest as some have predicted a $3000 bitcoin which generally translates to this will have an even greater impact on altcoins like hive. As to say a $3000 bitcoin could result in a very deficient hive price which is more likely than not due to the condition of the standard economy. As to say even poorer performing crypto assets have a greater chance of going away forever or dying out than top 10 crypto projects.
Hive is not truly decentralized whether. we consider, mining, developmen, geography, exchanges and wealth.
Some would even go so far as to say with the downvoting you create a type of censorship so to the communities outside of hive it probably doesn’t feel decentralized.
So next what you would have then is the lack of interest in a product that doesn’t fulfill it’s objective. The catch 22 is even as worse. As what is mostly presented as a decentralized social media platform actually tries to become that with apps etc., this doesn’t work well for something that probably works better as a centralized hub to grow the network. So it woudl be similar to saying facebook is decentralized but because it is there can be no facebook company thus it can’t make money and so development is all over the place not organized with no true direction to go in.
So then it becomes a disorganized business at the end of the day with no true course of comprehension to pursue. This in fact would make for an incoherent business direction which generally is a bad thing in business which means one of the most needed elements to such a platform.. the business angle could not exist in an efficient way which makes it quite the inferior product to getting anything that’s needed for the community towards the community done.
Nobody willing to take the fall and absorb losses. if we look at the early days of bitcoin. Many bitcoiners were working in development.. marketing for free at their own cost. Supporting the chain at no profit. These sacrifices created one of the biggest strides to the next financial system not realized in over 4000 years.
The sacrifices made in ideas like bitcoin don’t exist on the hive blockchain. Every creation.. every design someone wants to profit from. It’s only one project i know of that is a serious project on the hive chain that doesn’t profit but only exist much like bitcoin for the advancement of humankind putting that ahead of profit..
That project is called Bitcoin MYK with it’s companion crypto the BBD coin or the Bitcoin MYK backed dollar. These projects act more like monetary system, nonprofit organization, foundation than for profit business. For profit businesses on the hive chain not only present massive challenges in their legalities.
To the authorities and regulators most projects on the hive chain would be little more than an avenue to skirt around securities laws and scam people due to the concentration of expectation of profit which violates the howey test making many of these products unregistered securities. A true regulatory issue that i’m sure will be examined as the regulators get more heavy on crypto.
Bitcoin MYK on hive as well as BBD coin, occupies a place as currency system not for profit business. This type product spreads more economic prosperity through the course of the citizens dividend. It uses ,multichain approach to allow for scaling and removing a great deal of inflation through being second layer whereas miner fees directly flow to the 1st layer. This presents a more favorable outcome to investors.
Products like these could be the saving grace of hive provided it is community accepted on the chain however, as Bitcoin MYK and BBD coin is multichain other communities on other chains will be able to save themselves using the system.
Our predictioni s failure to use systems similar to this raises the chances of some of the less valuable chains.. typically chains outside of the top 100 will have very little chance of survival in the coming months.
In other words the lack of social cohesion and dynamics like experienced in early bitcoin where it was more socially driven first than financial. Takes out we believe to be an important piece of the equation.
We’re aware of the great optimism that exist in crypto.. even that once existed with projects like Terra Luna. The problem is have you considered the alternative that hive may in fact fail. Or have you become romanticized without considering outcomes to protect yourself?