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The U.S. Federal Reserve says they have “infinite amount of cash” — what’s the impact on bitcoin?
Why BTC will drop to $5,000
A “death cross" formed on the BTC price, a top-down intersection of 50-day and 200-day Moving Average. This will lead to a price drop down to $5,000, Coindesk analyst Omkar Godbole thinks.
However, the drop will not happen immediately: for example, in the spring of 2018 the “cross”, bitcoin price first went up by 50% in a month, and then declined by 70% within six months.
The scenario will be cancelled if BTC can consolidate above $6,460, the analyst writes. Godbole also notes that similar crosses are forming on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 industrial charts.
Peter Brandt: Bitcoin price will drop by 50%
Well-known trader Peter Brandt believes that BTC will drop below $3,000. Responding to a comment on Twitter, Brandt posted a chart with a “descending flag” figure - if implemented, the price will go to the level of $2,700.
The trader also indicated that having declined below $7,500, bitcoin price broke the long-term support line and moved into a downtrend. Earlier, the analyst said that bitcoin will drop to zero after breaking this level.
Opinion: cryptocurrency will benefit from the crisis
Unlimited amount of U.S. dollars will positively affect bitcoin, trader Joseph Young believes.
“Fed printing unlimited money to pump markets = good for bitcoin
Devaluation of dollar over the long term = good for bitcoin
Short-term may be gloomy for bitcoin, but long-term prospect of it remains very bright,” Young tweeted.
A similar opinion is shared by Stack analyst Lennard Neo. He expects an influx of capital into cryptocurrencies due to the uncertainty central banks and governments actions amid the crisis.
CEO of Titus Investment Advisors Justin Gillespie notes that quarantine will strengthen the position of cryptocurrency. According to him, “The longer the people can’t go outside to conduct their business, the more useful the cryptocurrency should become as it can be sent and received from the safety of one’s home."
Cash and сoronavirus: how to stay safe when dealing with banknotes and bank cards
During the pandemic, when it is of the utmost importance to be very careful about your health and follow good hygiene practice, BestChange team wishes to remind you the necessary precautionary measures when dealing with cash and bank cards.
We already wrote that cash is one of the dirtiest things in the world and a carrier of many diseases. Various microbes live on the banknotes for quite a long time – from one up to two months. Paper money has a lot of cellulose which is the perfect media for the development of bacteria. Plastic and metal money have much fewer microorganisms, and their life is much shorter.
Speaking about COVID-19 specifically, the virus stays up to 5 days on metal materials, 4 days on wood and glass. Paper exposed to coronavirus remained safe after 4-5 days, and the virus stays on plastic for no more than 5 days.
Besides coronavirus, many other bacteria can be found on banknotes: causing skin inflammation, microorganisms associated with the vaginal tract, Escherichia coli and staphylococcal bacteria can be found – they cause intestinal diseases. Besides bacteria, fungi spores and helminthiasis (simply put, worm infections) pathogens can be found on money.
Many infectious disease specialists around the world approve of decreasing the usage of cash in favor of contactless. However, please keep in mind that the direct contact between the bank card and the terminal or touching the terminal when pressing the PIN can be also dangerous in terms of contracting the infection.
We would like to remind you recommendations of WHO: wash your hands, do not touch your face when using cash. WHO does not say that cash must be totally avoided, but theoretically, it can be a channel to contract the virus.
Please remember, that the notion “dirty money” has a real basis behind it and before biting into a snack you have just purchased with some cash, remember what is at stake. Always thoroughly wash your hands or sanitize them after being in contact with cash or touching any surfaces in public spaces, including ATMs.
Modern problems require modern solutions, electronic money and cryptocurrency get another advantage as a safer payment means of the future.
BestChange team asks everyone to follow the advice of doctors and professionals, take care of yourself and your close ones and keep your spirits up!
Cash turnover hits record high in the U.S. and altcoins mentions on Twitter drop to a minimum
USD banknote turnover hits a 20-year high
From March 11 to March 18, the turnover of cash dollars in the United States increased by $34 billion, shooting up from $1.809 trillion to $1.843 trillion.
This is the largest growth in the last 20 years, economist John Paul Coning points out: the U.S. citizens are withdrawing money from banks amid the coronavirus epidemic. Last time a similar situation was observed in 1999 when people were afraid of digital devices failure due to the "Y2K bug"
It is noteworthy that the current increase in cash circulation is happening despite the WHO recommendations to avoid contact with banknotes, as COVID-19 can be distributed through them.
Twitter's altcoin mentions drop to a minimum
Twitter users now write about main altcoins less often - the number of mentions per day has dropped to a three-year low.
The number of posts about XRP has decreased by 60% in two months to 2,542. Ethereum was talked about slightly less — the number of tweets with the hashtag #ETH fell to 2,500, which has become the lowest engagement level since February 2017. For comparison: in December 2017, when the altcoin set a maximum price, the number of tweets about it exceeded 51,000.
Bitcoin’s “little brother” LTC has been completely forgotten —Twitter users mentioned the coin only 350 times a day. The popularity of BTC, on the contrary, has grown, its mentions have doubled since the end of January.
Small miners shutting off will help the price of bitcoin
Blockware CEO Matt D’Souza said. He analyzed the periods of decline of the network’s hash rate and noted that they were followed by a prolonged increase of cryptocurrency price. In his opinion, now the situation may be repeated.
At the moment, the computing power of the BTC blockchain has dropped to 93 EH/s. In mid-March, when the bitcoin exchange rate sank below $4,000, small miners were forced to turn off the equipment, which led to a sharp drop in the hash rate and the difficulty of mining cryptocurrency.
Matt D’Souza notes that this will benefit the price of bitcoin, as private miners quickly sold their coins to not work at a loss.
Miners will start to switch off after the halving, and Bitstamp plans to expand its listing
Some miners will stop working after the halving
States a report by an analytic company Coin Metrics. Despite the fact that Bitcoin price has recovered to the level of $6,300, for many miners the breakeven point is higher than that.
“We expect miners to follow a cycle of decreased profit margins, increased selling, capitulation, and a culling of the least efficient miners from the network. Once this cycle is complete, the miner industry should return to a healthier state that is supportive of future price increases,” the analysts say,
Last week, Bitcoin mining complexity fell by a record 16%, according to BTC.com forecasts, after the next eight-day cycle, it will decrease by another 12%. This will also reduce the profitability of mining for inefficient equipment, according to Coin Metrics.
Bitstamp may launch trading Ethereum Classic, Zcash and Stellar
Bitstamp, one of the first European cryptocurrency exchanges, is considering listing Ethereum Classic (ETC), Stellar Lumens (XLM), Zcash (ZEC), Basic Attention Token (BAT), Paxos Standard (PAX), USD Coin (USDC) and 0x (ZRX).
The platform’s specialists will thoroughly study the technical characteristics of these cryptocurrencies, as well as their compliance with the security requirements of the exchange and the legislation of some countries. It is worth noting that Bitstamp is extremely cautious about listing coins. Currently, only five crypto assets are traded on the platform: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash.
Cryptocurrency trading volume on exchanges increased by 60%
Trade turnover at 22 popular crypto platforms grew by 61% in Q1 of 2020, according to the report of The Block media.
In the last quarter of 2019, the figure was $96 billion, and currently, it has increased to $154 billion — almost the same level as in Q3 of last year.
The volume of transactions in the Bitcoin network increased by 11% to $ 178 billion, while the amount of commissions remained virtually unchanged at $20.12 million. The average BTC block size has slightly increased: from 1.14 MB to 1.17 MB. In January, the share of SegWit transfers exceeded 70%, and the number of public Lightning channels increased by 3%.
Bitcoin is again trading above $7,000, and the ETH exchange balance reaches its maximum since 2016
Bitcoin has gone up to $7,000
BTC price today has gone over the mark of $7,100 —over the past 24 hours, cryptocurrency has strengthened by 5%.
Since March 13, bitcoin has grown in price by more than 80%. Most of the crypto assets from TOP-20 also added in value: Stellar (11.69%), TRON (9.51%) and Ethereum (6.42%) have demonstrated the highest growth.
Earlier we noted that the capitalization of the USDT stablecoin exceeded $6 billion for the first time. A number of analysts attribute the increase of the number of Tether tokens to the rise in bitcoin price.
ETH exchange balance reaches its maximum since 2016
Since the end of last year, the volume of ethereum stored on trading platforms has increased by 21% to 18.187 million ETH.
According to Glassnode, this is the highest level since December 2016 and it accounts for 16% of all circulating coins. Interestingly, the indicator is inversely correlated with the price of ETH. Thus, for 12 months from December 2016, Ethereum has risen in price from $6 to $ 1,350 — at the same time, the cryptocurrency exchange balance has decreased from 18 to 8 million coins.
On March 13, the ETH price fell to $95, which was the lowest since December 2018. Now the coin is trading near the $154 mark.
Bitcoin Cash undergoes halving
On April 8, in the Bitcoin Cash network block reward was halved. It was reduced from 12.5 BCH to 6.25 BCH at block height 630’000. The night before halving, the coin went up from $251 to $275, but today it has again dropped in price to $257. In about 12 hours, halving of Bitcoin SV, another fork of the first cryptocurrency, will happen. According to BSV developer Bat Jasper, this will negatively affect cryptocurrency as it will make its mining less profitable than mining bitcoin. We would like to remind that halving in the network of BTC itself is expected on May 13, the reward will drop from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.
U.S. national debt hits a record $24 trillion
According to Trading Economics, the U.S. public debt is currently $24.018 trillion. It grew by an additional $4 trillion over 4 years under Donald Trump. The sharp increase of this figure was caused by the U.S. Federal Reserve program to support the economy during the financial crisis brought about by coronavirus. The regulator intends to print $6 trillion worth of banknotes. Earlier, TV presenter Max Kaiser called the dollar “debt coupons,” and popular writer Robert Kiyosaki called for investing in bitcoin and gold: “IF US Debt to GDP ratio 60% world sound. Today US Debt to GDP 110% and climbing. US bankrupt”, he tweeted.
The number of ETH addresses has exceeded 70 million
The number of addresses in the Ethereum network has reached 70 million, the Glassnode service draws attention.The figure began to sharply grow in November 2017 before the coin set a price record of $1,300. Since that time, the cost of ETH was mostly falling and today it is $171. Despite this, the number of addresses has increased 8.2 times since November 2017. The number of active addresses in March was about 230 thousand - the figure correlates with the price of ethereum. The maximum at the level of 715 thousand was set in January 2018, when the cryptocurrency price reached a historical record.
China has published a new cryptocurrency rating
Bitcoin is only ranked 14th in the rating. BTC has lost three more positions, giving way to Cosmos (ATOM), Stellar (XLM) and Dash. TOP 3 remains the same since the February ranking: EOS is in the first place, followed by TRON and Ethereum. Lisk, IOST, NULS, Qtum, NEO, XLM and Dash are in top ten. This is already the seventeenth evaluation made by the China-based Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (CCID). Projects are evaluated on three parameters: basic technology, applicability and creativity.
Binance exchange launches mobile bitcoin options
Binance, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchange services, announced launching bitcoin options. The function is only available in the latest version of the exchange’s mobile app. At the moment, users can trade bitcoin options paired with USDT - in the future, the platform plans to expand the list of instruments. Binance chose the American version of options in which the deal can be closed before the contract expiry date. The exchange’s statement states that their options provide “a shorter time frame compared to traditional options”, ranging from 10 minutes to 1 day.
BTC and S&P 500 correlation hit a nine-year high
Bitcoin price and the S&P 500 index have been changing most correlated for 9 years, said eToro analyst Mati Greenspan. The correlation of the prices of the two assets reached 0.6, whereas before it did not exceed 0.3 - with a value of 1, the charts move completely identically. The analyst explained this by the coronavirus pandemic. Bitcoin is still considered a risk asset and hasnt achieved the safe haven status that gold has taken thousands of years to build up, Greenspan summed up. However, he added that the profitability of BTC is still higher than the stock market: since the beginning of the year, BTC added 7% in price, while at the same time, the price of oil collapsed to the levels of the 2000s.
Opinion: only large miners will survive halving
Representatives of the mining industry believe that only large and effective miners will remain after the halving. F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun said that due to a decrease in rewards from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, unprofitable operators could be absorbed by larger players. A similar position was expressed by Alejandro de la Torre, Poolin Vice President. In his opinion, miners using old equipment will have to disconnect after halving. The head of New Mine, Ibrahim Alkurd, noted that one should not hope for a rise in the price of bitcoin after halving. Miners hoping that the BTC price will jump up after halving the block reward, making their operations profitable, are in trouble, he said. Wang Chun added that after halving, those farms will stay that are capable of mining bitcoin at a cost of $3,500.
The balance of bitcoins on exchanges fell to a minimum
The number of BTC that users store on exchanges has dropped to a 6-month minimum. According to Glassnode, the current balance is 2.36 million coins. The indicator has been declining since March 13, when the price of bitcoin fell below $4,000. At the same time, the network activity has grown to record levels since 2017. According to TokenAnalyst analysts, investors are withdrawing cryptocurrency from exchanges, since they are considering long-term storage of coins.
65% of Twitter users believe in the strengthening of BTC after halving
The topic of halving is growing in popularity on the social network Twitter along with increased Google searches. Over the past two weeks, the number of posts mentioning the word "halving" has grown tweets-fold, reports The TIE. On May 6, users posted 2,500 tweets: 65% of them are positive, that is, their authors expect that the event will positively affect the value of bitcoin. The TIE notes that the topic of halving at the end of April surpassed the popularity of coronavirus among crypto enthusiasts.
Ex-President of Bank of China: digital yuan will replace cash
The digital version of yuan, which is already being tested by the Chinese authorities, may completely replace cash in the future, said Li Lihui, the former President of the Bank of China. He noted that unlike traditional currencies, CDBC will not depend on a third-party bank or payment system. In this case, the virtual currency must meet four key conditions: “Whether the digital yuan can become the dominant form of currency and mainstream payment means, depends on whether it has greater efficiency, lower transaction costs, enough economic scale with commercial value, and people’ acceptance,” said the former President of Bank of China. He added that CDBC will have anonymity, like Bitcoin, but the regulator will set limits on the number and frequency of operations without confirming the identity.
The profit of miners fell by 44%. Halving is to blame
Daily earnings of miners fell from $16 to $9 million after halving on May 12. Obsolete equipment, for example, Antminer S9, has now become unprofitable. At the same time, the bitcoin hash rate fell by 16%, and the block mining time increased to 10 minutes 32 seconds. The problem should be fixed by a correction of complexity, which is expected in 5 days. The estimated difficulty will decrease by 2%.
Stablecoin capitalization exceeded $10 billion
The volume of all existing stablecoins reached $10.4 billion, having updated the historical maximum. Tether holds 85% of the market, second place is occupied by USDC, which accounts for 7.2% of capitalization. Since February, the total supply of stable coins has grown by 79%, and the share of USDT has increased by 3%. Most USDT tokens were issued on the Ethereum blockchain - $5.73 billion, $1.8 billion are working on the Tron network, $1.3 billion use the Omni blockchain.
Pavel Durov announces the closure of the TON crypto project
Pavel Durov, co-founder of VK social network and Telegram messenger, announced the closure of the Telegram Open Network blockchain project. The reason, he said, is the decision of the American court. "Unfortunately, a US court stopped TON from happening. How? Imagine that several people put their money together to build a gold mine – and to later split the gold that comes out of it. Then a judge comes and says: 'These people invested in the gold mine because they were looking for profits. And they didn't want that gold for themselves, they wanted to sell it to other people. Because of this, they are not allowed to get the gold," Durov wrote. He noted that the court banned the use of GRAM cryptocurrency in the whole world since a US citizen can get access to it. According to the businessman, this is a paradox decision, because it implies control of the American authorities over the sovereignty of other countries. “Unfortunately, we – the 96% of the world's population living elsewhere – are dependent on decision makers elected by the 4% living in the US,” concluded Durov. The businessman said that his team is stopping work on the platform and urged not to be fooled by fraudsters using the name of the project.
Andreessen Horowitz: the cryptocurrency market is growing randomly but steadily
Venture Fund Andreessen Horowitz from Silicon Valley has analyzed the cryptocurrency market and came to the conclusion that it has been showing a “choppy yet consistent growth” since 2010. Experts studied four metrics: the price of bitcoin, activity in social networks, developer activity and startup activity. All four parameters showed positive cumulative annual growth rates. The company noted the importance of the 2017 cycle, which became the reason for the launch of “dozens of interesting projects” from various business areas. “Even though crypto cycles look chaotic, over the long term they’ve generated steady growth of new ideas, code, projects, and startups — the fundamental drivers of software innovation. Technologists and entrepreneurs will continue to push crypto forward in the coming years. We are excited to see what they build,” Andreessen Horowitz concluded.
Miner hackers attacked supercomputers
Last week, a number of supercomputers from the UK, Germany, Switzerland and Spain were attacked by crypto miners. The University of Edinburgh, Leibniz Computing Center, the Bavarian Academy of Sciences, the Swiss Center for Scientific Computing are among the victims. Experts from Cado Security examined samples of malicious code and concluded that hackers gained access through compromised user data and SSH keys. There is no official evidence that the attacks were carried out by one group of attackers, but Cado Security pointed to similar virus file names and network identifiers.
Cardano creator: misinformation prevents bitcoin from spreading
Cardano founder and Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson suggested that bitcoin is misunderstood due to the abundance of false information and fears. “I started with Bitcoin and started with something called the Bitcoin education project. The goal there was to try to bring as many people as possible into our ecosystem and to also dispel a lot of the common myths, fear, uncertainty, disinformation, and misnomers and things that have been cropping up. In 2013, there was certainly a lot of them, and unfortunately today there’s even more,” the businessman said. Hoskinson created a 40-minute video in which he explained the essence of the first cryptocurrency and called for similar actions by all industry participants. The reason was the tweet by the writer Joan Rowling, who asked to tell her what Bitcoin is. Having received many answers, including from Ilon Mask and Vitalik Buterin, the author of Harry Potter books has not understood the idea of cryptocurrency and expressed her disappointment.
Bitcoin whales withdraw 17,000 BTC over a few hours
Large holders of bitcoin in several transactions withdrew 17,320 BTC (about $169.4 million) from several exchanges, the Whale Alert service noticed. First, 5,000 BTC was sent from Bitfinex to an unknown address. Then 3,058 BTC was transferred from an account on Binance exchange; 2,645 BTC were moved from OKEx in two transactions. A little later, another 3,164 BTC were withdrawn from OKEx, and 1,593 BTC from Coinbase. The senders and recipients are unknown; all transfers were made during the evening and night of May 19. Twitter users have suggested that whales accumulate coins on the verge of the upcoming Bitcoin price increase.
Bitcoin price drops to 0 on BitMEX
On May 19, the BTC/ USD price collapsed to zero at BitMEX, one of the largest crypto derivatives trading sites. After that, the platform suspended trading for several hours. Representatives of the exchange did not explain whether there was a real deal at the rate of $0, or whether it was a technical malfunction. BitMEX said that “all funds are safe”, now the website is working as usual. The other day, a lawsuit was filed against BitMEX, among other accusations, the exchange was accused of price manipulation and fraud.
Bitcoin mining difficulty decreases by 6%
On the morning of May 20, the first change in the complexity of mining Bitcoin took place after the recent halving — the indicator fell by 6%. The reason lies in the hashrate falling after halving the block reward. Now outdated equipment can once again generate revenue at the cost of electricity below $0.05 kW/h. In some provinces of China, due to the rainy season, tariffs for miners have been reduced to $0.03 kWh/h. This may prompt miners who have switched off, to return to cryptocurrency mining, according to Alejandro De La Torre, vice president of the PoolIn mining pool. According to BTC.com, in two weeks, complexity may decrease by another 6.3%. In early March, the indicator updated its historical maximum, but after the collapse of the exchange rate to $4,000 at the end of the month, it fell by 15.95%.
Bitcoin Cash is at risk of an attack of 51%
The Bitcoin Cash network lost 30% of hashrate after bitcoin halving - this makes it vulnerable to 51% attack, according to Yassin Elmanjra, analyst at ARK Invest.
“Bitcoin Cash is not looking healthy:
-Hashrate down 30% since halving (& only accounts for ~2% of SHA256 hash)
-Economic throughput at all time lows
-Fees are .05% of miner rev (<$100/day)
-Theoretical 51% attack costs <$10k/hr, ” Yassin tweeted.
He added that he was surprised why the capture of 51% of the cryptocurrency capacities has not yet been implemented. According to the crypto51 service, the cost of such an attack is $8,800 per hour.
Investors accumulate Ethereum
On May 24, two records were updated in the ETH network: the number of addresses containing 100 or more coins reached 47,740, and the number of wallets with one or more ETH exceeded 1,042 million. Glassnode service drew attention to these statistics. Earlier, the Grayscale fund, having bought almost half of all coins mined in 2020, reported the growth in popularity of investments in Ethereum. The clients of the fund are institutional investors who invest in securities tied to cryptocurrency. According to analysts, market participants expect a strengthening of the coin value after the launch of the Ethereum 2.0 network, scheduled for the third quarter of this year.
Canaan miner manufacturer reports loss
Hard times have come for mining equipment manufacturers. The Chinese company Canaan said it suffered $5.6 million losses in Q1. Revenue for this period amounted to $9.4 million - for comparison, in Q4of 2019, the indicator reached $66.5 million. The company's expenses in the first quarter of 2020 exceeded $15 million, which is associated with a two-fold reduction in equipment prices. “The overall market situation since December last year until January had not been too good. So the unit price per TH/s was indeed lower,” said Nangeng Zhang, CEO of the company. According to the F2Pool mining calculator, Canaan devices are significantly inferior in efficiency to the equipment of Bitmain and MicroBT.
JPMorgan: Bitcoin is trading 25% below the real value
Although the investment bank JPMorgan does not work with cryptocurrency, the company's specialists occasionally provide analytics on it. According to the bank’s report of May 22, bitcoin today is trading “25% below what the intrinsic price would be after the halving.” The intrinsic value is calculated on the basis of the average cost of mining one coin. Thus, BTC should be trading near the $11,500 mark, which is about $2,400 higher than the current figures. According to JPMorgan, "eventually bitcoin will catch up."
Miners push the market
Miners turned into sellers, exerting pressure on the market, says analyst CryptoKea. Over the past seven days, they have sold 955 coins over what they mined. “We reached Bitcoin miner capitulation territory,” the analyst concluded. At the same time, the BTC hashrate fell to its lowest level in 2020. Even during Black Thursday, when the rate of the first cryptocurrency fell to $3,800, the computing power of the network was 94 TH/s. Now it has fallen to 90.30 TH/s. Miners switch off outdated devices, but they are forced to sell bitcoins to pay for current expenses, CryptoKea notes.
The number of “hodlers” increases to the levels of 2016
The number of coins that have not been moving for more than a year has reached 60%, according to cryptanalyst Philipp Swift. This indicates a significant increase in the number of "hodlers" - investors who prefer to hold coins for a long time. The last time this was observed in 2016, it was several months before the bull rally, Swift notes. The analyst used the data of his own HODL Wave indicator, which estimates how long the coins did not move from one address to another. Currently, the indicator value is at levels close to the historical maximum.
Whales accumulate $4.8 billion in ETH
Ethereum held by large investors recently reached a 10-month high. The 100 largest wallets have accumulated 21.8 million ETH (about $4.8 billion). At the same time, whales have acquired 145 thousand coins over the past two days, according to the analytical service Santiment. Against this background, Ethereum price reached a 2-month high at around $224. Over the past day, cryptocurrency has risen in price by 5.77%. In addition, the number of ETH long positions on Bitfinex hit a new all-time high: since the beginning of the year, the indicator has grown by 246%, updating the historic maximum at 1.76 million ETH.
Gavin Andresen: crypto trading is all speculation
Gavin Andresen, Chief research officer at Bitcoin Foundation, expressed the opinion that traders speculate at the price of digital currencies, not paying attention to the essence of the underlying technologies. He compared the graphs of the IOTA and ZCash rates over the past year and noted that he does not see significant differences between them. At the same time, from February 12 to March 10, no transactions were made on the IOTA network due to the suspension of the wallet that was attacked. Andresen said that he could not determine from the price chart which of the projects was experiencing problems. “Probably nobody is thinking, and it is all day traders and bots,” the scientist concluded.
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